From Russia With Love – Part 1

The Soviet er ‘Russian’ Bear Rises Again. cartoon credit – Scott Stantis, Tribune Content Agency

I have been reading about what I firmly believe is the impending war in Ukraine with a terrible mix of awe, trepidation, and disbelief. I feel like its 1985 and the Soviet Union is massing at the Fulda Gap. I remember a decade ago the ridicule Mitt Romney received when he said that Russia was our greatest geopolitical foe. If the annexation of Crimea in 2014 didn’t validate his statement, the events of the past week with diplomatic efforts fast breaking down certainly has. How did we get here?

A) Putin. He’s a classic despot. An authoritarian strongman who has been able to undermine the nascent promise of a liberal democracy in Russia for decades. He has consolidated power – holding sham elections and practicing continuismo – modifying the Russian constitution so that he can stay in power until 2036 (at least). He has made himself and his inner circle fantastically rich by pillaging his country’s natural resources and diverting much of the proceeds to their private coffers; (with ironically, much of the holdings sheletered in the West because of our rule of law and tax shelters for the ultra-wealthy). Putin is a Soviet at heart. He’s a KGB officer from the Cold War with a bit of a Napolean complex who lamented that the USSR’s collapse was the ‘greatest geopolitical catastrophe’ of the 20th century. More than the host of horrors from WWII? Sheesh….

While he rides around shirtless on a horse to project an image of strength, he suppresses Pussy Riot’s and others free speech, poisons his political foes, and sometimes even succeeds in his state-sponsored assassinations all while lying and manipulating his population with his disinformation and propaganda. He has orgasmic visions of reconstituting the holdings of the Soviet empire; drawing up a 21st century Iron Curtain. Make no mistake, the entire annexation of Ukraine – by force if necessary – is the prized jewel of that not-so-feverish dream.

B) European Weakness. I give Trump a lot of grief, but I also give him credit where it is due. He was spot on, (but still too one-dimensional) in his critique that our NATO allies need to spend more on their own defense. Not every member meets the 2% GDP target of defense spending. The US does and then some:

Granted, the US is the world’s largest economy and the world’s policeman. Too many of our activities pertain to foreign entanglements outside of NATO’s purview, but the graphic is still damning. And don’t take my statistics are sacrosanct. I remember when NATO ran out of bombs to drop on Libya after a few weeks. The article even intimates it – the NATO commanders were trying to scrape up a few dozen fighters to fly various missions from our fellow allies, all while the US provided significant logistical support of the air war against Khaddaffi.

C) European Complacency (read Germany). Putin watched for years as NATO gave meager support to the US in the NATO mission in Afghanistan; especially once the war drug on after 2011. He sees their high standards of living but a reliance of the US to underwrite the defense of the continent when every European nation refuses to spend more money to defend itself or send more troops to support an ally. He generalizes and sees a set of nations so worried about going green and the ‘dangers’ of nuclear power that they will turn off their reactors and oil/coal plants (most prominently in Germany as the largest European economy) and rely ever more on cleaner burning natural gas from Russian to bridge the gap to a cleaner, greener future. That gives Putin the exact leverage he is using against Germany with their tepid response to Russian provocation over Ukraine and the 5,000 helmets they sent to support the Ukrainian cause. What a joke. Putin has calculated that German leadership and national interest are too imbedded with Russia over the yet-to-be-completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline for them to do much. He may be right.

D) US Mismanagement and Disarray. While I may throw some stones at Europe, I know I live in a glass house. My country has been mismanaged for the past 25 years and The People are responsible. I have been very clear about my firm belief and disdain on this topic in many of my articles over the years. Putin sees the same thing. He sees the US’s recent chaotic exit from Afghanistan as proof of that mismanagement. He estimates that while the US has great capacity to wage war, it’s civilian leadership doesn’t have the political will to fight in conflicts not central to the US cause…and even then the US has limits (about 20 years if you look at Afghanistan).

Putin sees the breakdown of our polity – the us versus them mentality that is undermining our society. He sees weak-kneed, ‘woke’ lliberal/Democrat citizens who tear down their country despite not acknowledge all the ways it benefits them and gives the opportunity; all while also recognizing the great works that the country has done. Their focus is solely on our shortcomings that are far outweighed by America’s impact on the world and promise for a better future. These are also the same citizens who think that nothing is worth war and do not recognize that freedom is not free.

Putin also sees the boot-licking Trumpsters who buy into the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns on Hilary Clinton. Putin delights in the ‘Big Lie’, the January 6th Insurrection, and how easily he can manipulate a poor leader like Trump. He is amazed that the same country that developed the vaccines to fight COVID-19 and has them readily available for all citizens has a significant conservative/Republican minority that doesn’t believe in the science and die by the hundreds of thousands over that mistake.

He figures that if this is the best the US can do, now is as good a time shake things up and see what he can get away with. The US hasn’t been up to most tasks, so how would this be any different?

If war is indeed pending – what do can/should the US and NATO do? That is in Part 2.